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 Discussion of the FY 2006 Risk Methodology and

the Urban Areas Security Initiative

FY 2006 Risk Methodology Overview

         The FY 2006 DHS risk methodology represents a major step forward in the analysis of the risk of terrorism faced by our Nations communities.  Tremendous gains have been made in both the quality and specificity of information and analysis incorporated within the model, yielding the most accurate estimation possible of the relative risk of prospective grant candidates.  The methodology is designed to inform a policy decision regarding the allocation and investment of Federal grant funding, and should not be confused with an estimate of absolute risk faced by candidate areas.

 

         In the FY 2006 model, risk is treated as a function of three variables:

         Threat, or the likelihood of a type of attack that might be attempted

         Vulnerability, or the likelihood that an attacker would succeed

         Consequence, or the impact of an attack occurring 

 

         Fundamentally, the FY 2006 methodology addresses two separate, but complementary, types of risk: asset-based risk and geographically-based risk.  Considered together, these two calculations provide an estimate of total terrorism risk, evaluating both risks to assets as well as risk to populations and geographic areas.  This is accomplished using a common, scalable risk model that is internally consistent across all homeland security grants in FY 2006, supporting DHS broader objective of achieving consistency in national risk management efforts. 

 

 

Calculating Risk

        Asset-based risk is a function of the risk of terrorism to potential targets within a geographic area.  It accounts for the combined risks associated with the various types of assets within the footprint of each individual grant candidate.  (Footprints for grant candidates were defined as follows: state boundary for States; combined city limits plus 10-mile buffer for Urban Areas; commercial waterway plus 2-mile buffer for ports.)  Asset-based risk allows DHS to strategically evaluate the likelihood of a terrorist attack against assets based on Intelligence Community assessments and the consequences that attack could have.

 

 

Asset-based Risk =

Total consequence of the loss of a particular asset type given a specific attack mode

x

Vulnerability of a particular asset type given a specific attack mode

x

Combined intent and capability of an adversary to utilize a specific mode of attack

 

        Geographically-based risk is derived from certain prevailing attributes or characteristics intrinsic to a geographical area that may contribute to its risk of terrorism.  This approach incorporates types of threat data that are independent of a specific, identifiable asset, such as reports on possible threatening activities within a given geographic area.  Similarly, through this approach, DHS can consider variables such as population or general characteristics such as a border that are not linked to one particular type of asset.

 

Geographically-based Risk =

Consequences derived from geographic attributes of the candidate area

x

Vulnerability attributes of the candidate area

x

Threat related to the candidate area

 

 Enhancements to the FY 2006 Risk Analysis Process

         Significant enhancements have been incorporated into the FY 2006 risk analysis process, including:

         The development of a common and scalable risk model,

         Greater depth and breadth in infrastructure data,

         Improved attribution of threat and law enforcement activity data,

         The incorporation of strategic threat analysis from Intelligence Community products,

         The inclusion of urbanized areas outside official city limits in order to better encourage regionalization, and

         The incorporation of transient populations, such as tourists and commuters. 

 

         In FY 2006, DHS has taken a major step forward in its risk analysis, developing a robust model which evaluates both risks to assets as well as risk to populations and geographic areas.  

 

         The formula has progressed from a simple count of high and low criticality and numbers of threat reports in FY 2003 to a fully risk-based computation that is attack-scenario based and uses infrastructure-specific vulnerability and consequence estimates.

 

         At the same time, DHS has expanded the number of infrastructure types considered in the analysis from 14 in FY 2003 to 38 in FY 2006.  The FY 2006 approach evaluates risk to well over 120,000 specific infrastructures; it also incorporates strategic threat analysis from the Intelligence Community along with law enforcement investigations, credible and less-credible threat reports, and suspicious incident reporting received from local, State and other Federal agencies. 

 

         The levels of complexity of the formula and data calculations have likewise increased markedly from FY 2003 to FY 2006.  For example, in FY 2003, three primary equations were used in the risk analysis; in FY 2006, over 4,100 equations were used.  For FY 2003, approximately 1,500 calculations were made, in contrast to more than 3 billion calculations in FY 2006.  FY 2005 UASI formulations were represented within a spreadsheet of about 72,000 cells; if the FY 2006 UASI calculations could be included in a spreadsheet, it would contain more than 20 million cells.

 

         DHS anticipates additional enhancements during the course of FY 2006 to continue the evolution of the risk methodology.  Future focus areas include developing a more sophisticated understanding of the cascading effects of attacks and improved data and knowledge.

 

 

Stakeholder Feedback and the FY 2006 Risk Methodology

        In May 2005, DHS hosted a one-day stakeholders meeting in Washington, D.C. to solicit input and feedback on the FY 2005 risk formula used to determine eligible Urban Areas and associated funding allocations for the UASI Program. 

 

        Attendees included key representatives from 12 States/Urban Areas, as well as representatives from the National Sheriffs Association, International Association of Chiefs of Police, International Association of Emergency Managers, Grand Lodge Fraternal Order of Police, International Association of Fire Chiefs, and Major Cities Chiefs. 

 

        All of the recommendations on the risk methodology from the stakeholders were incorporated into the FY 2006 model.

 

 

FY 2006 UASI Eligibility

        The FY 2006 UASI program recognizes the shared nature of risk across regional metropolitan areas, which both 9/11 and Hurricanes Katrina & Rita have illustrated, and does a better job of accounting for that in the risk analysis process.  The FY 2006 UASI program also more finely focuses candidate eligibility while providing broader coverage of critical assets and populations nationally. 

 

        To identify jurisdictions for inclusion in the data count phase, all cities with a population greater than 100,000 and any city with reported threat data during the past fiscal year were identified.  Cities on this list with shared city boundaries were then combined into a single candidate area. A 10-mile buffer was then drawn from the border of that city or combined candidate area to establish the geographical area in which data was evaluated.  All candidate areas with a combined population of greater than 200,000 were then considered in the final analysis.

 

        The pool of candidates eligible to apply for the FY 2006 UASI Program represents 46 Urban Areas.  These candidate Urban Areas include 121 cities with a population of greater than 100,000 and account for approximately 20% of the population of the United States.  In addition, the 46 eligible Urban Areas in FY 2006 represent 53 of the 57 Urban Areas previously designated as participants in the program.

 

        In FY 2006, the top 35 Urban Areas identified through the risk analysis were identified as eligible candidates.  This included 42 previously designated Urban Areas.

 

        In addition, 11 Urban Areas that participated in the program in FY 2005 but did not fall within the top 35 Urban Areas in the FY 2006 risk analysis have been extended eligibility for one additional grant cycle in FY 2006.  This extended eligibility reflects feedback to DHS from stakeholders on the criticality of providing sustainment funding to existing Urban Areas across fiscal years.  This innovation in Urban Area eligibility determination provides greater transparency in the process and fosters enhanced long-term planning for Urban Areas participating in the program.

 

        Any Urban Area not identified as eligible through the risk analysis process for two consecutive grant cycles will not be eligible for continued funding under the UASI program in the second grant cycle; this will not preclude the Urban Area from future participation in the program should it be identified as eligible through the risk analysis in a future year.  Urban Areas will continue to be eligible to receive funding from other DHS programs, including the State Homeland Security Program and the Law Enforcement Terrorism Prevention Program.

 

 

FY 2006 UASI Program Governance and Administration

        UASI program participants, not the Federal government, define the regional groupings that best achieve and sustain risk-based target levels of capability. This approach provides greater flexibility in defining Urban Areas in a manner that reflects each areas unique geopolitical realities and in designing the governance structures that will guide program implementation.

 

        The UASI program continues to allow flexibility for each Urban Area to design a program governance process that supports their specific requirements and dynamics, while still furthering regional collaboration in support of the National Preparedness Goal.  To that end, each Urban Area is required to establish an Urban Area Working Group (UAWG) to steer program implementation.  Membership in the UAWG must provide either direct or indirect representation for all the jurisdictions that comprise the defined Urban Area. 

 

        FY 2006 marks a shift in the way UASI funds will be awarded.  In previous years, Urban Areas knew their funding allocations prior to submitting grant applications.  The FY 2006 UASI program addresses need for the first time as a criterion in determining grant awards.  Applicants will be asked to submit an Investment Justification requesting resources to undertake specific initiatives that tie to the Urban Area Homeland Security Strategy and the National Preparedness Goal. 

 

        Applications will be evaluated by peers and subject matter experts based on how effectively the proposed solutions address regional areas of need.  Addressing National, State, and regional priorities and reducing need will serve to mitigate the overall risk facing the Urban Area.  Coordinating risk-reduction measures on a regional basis strengthens collective defenses.  Jurisdictions that share risk can prepare more efficiently, and respond more effectively through development of interconnected and complementary systems.

 


 

VISIUAL REPRESENTATION OF FY 2006 UASI RISK MODEL

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

URBAN AREAS

AZ

Phoenix Area*

FL

Miami Area

LA

New Orleans Area

NJ

Jersey City/Newark Area

OR

Portland Area

CA

Anaheim/Santa Ana Area

Orlando Area

MA

Boston Area

NV

Las Vegas Area*

PA

Philadelphia Area

Bay Area

Tampa Area*

MD

Baltimore Area

NY

Buffalo Area*

Pittsburgh Area

Los Angeles/Long Beach Area

GA

Atlanta Area

MI

Detroit Area

New York City Area

TN

Memphis Area

Sacramento Area*

HI

Honolulu Area

MN

Twin Cities Area

OH

Cincinnati Area

TX

Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington Area

San Diego Area*

IL

Chicago Area

MO

Kansas City Area

Cleveland Area

Houston Area

CO

Denver Area

IN

Indianapolis Area

St. Louis Area

Columbus Area

San Antonio Area

DC

National Capital Region

KY

Louisville Area*

NC

Charlotte Area

Toledo Area*

WA

Seattle Area

FL

Fort Lauderdale Area**

LA

Baton Rouge Area*

NE

Omaha Area*

OK

Oklahoma City Area*

WI

Milwaukee Area

Jacksonville Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*FY 2005 Urban Areas eligible for sustainment funding through the FY 2006 UASI program; any Urban Area not identified as eligible through the risk analysis process for two consecutive years will not be eligible for continued funding under the UASI program.

** In FY 2006, Fort Lauderdale is included as a candidate Urban Area.  However, Ft. Lauderdale currently resides within the existing, defined Miami Urban Area.  In moving forward on implementation in FY 2006, it is the intent of DHS to further strengthen the regional approach already developed in the area not to fragment existing structures.

 

ASSET AND GEOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS USED IN FY 2006 UASI RISK MODEL

ASSET TYPES USED IN ASSET-BASED RISK CALCULATIONS

 

 

#

Urban Area Asset Types

#

Urban Area Asset Types

 
 

1

Chemical Manufacturing Facilities

20

National Health Stockpile Sites

 

2

City Road Bridges

21

NG Compressor Stations

 

3

Colleges and Universities

22

Non Power Nuclear Reactors

 

4

Commercial Airports

23

Nuclear Power Plants

 

5

Commercial Overnight Shipping Facilities

24

Nuclear Research Labs

 

6

Convention Centers

25

Petroleum Pumping Stations

 

7

Dams

26

Petroleum Refineries

 

8

Electricity Generation Facilities

27

Petroleum Storage Tank Farms

 

9

Electricity Substations

28

Potable Water Treatment Facilities

 

10

Enclosed Shopping Malls

29

Primary And Secondary Schools

 

11

Ferry Terminals - Buildings

30

Railroad Bridges

 

12

Financial Facilities

31

Railroad Passenger Stations

 

13

Hospitals

32

Railroad Tunnels

 

14

Hotel Casinos

33

Road Commuter Tunnels

 

15

Levees

34

Stadiums

 

16

LNG Terminals

35

Tall Commercial Buildings

 

17

Maritime Port Facilities

36

Telcomm-Telephone Hotels

 

18

Mass Transit Commuter Rail & Subway Stations

37

Trans Oceanic Cable Landings

 

19

National Monuments and Icons

38

Theme Parks

 

 

 

CONSEQUENCE, VULNERABILITY, AND THREAT PARAMETERS USED IN GEOGRAPHICALLY-BASED RISK CALCULATIONS

 

 

#

Urban Area Geographic Attributes

#

Urban Area Geographic Attributes

1

Defense Industrial Base Facilities

13

Population - Commuter

2

FBI Basic Cases

14

Population-City 10 Mile Buffer Zone Night Census

3

FBI Special Cases

15

Population-Visitor

4

I-94 Visitors Countries of Interest Destination City

16

Port Population

5

IC - Credible Threat

17

Port Population Density

6

IC - Less Credible Threat

18

I-94 Port of Entry/Border Crossings Countries of Interest

7

ICE Basic Cases

19

Port of Entry/Border Crossings Total Throughput

8

ICE Special Cases

20

Suspicious Incidents - Credible

9

Special  Events

21

Suspicious Incidents - Less Credible

10

Length of Nuclear WIPP route within city buffer

22

Vessels of Special Interest

11

Military Bases

23

National Health Stockpile

12

Urban Area

24

Rail Daily Ridership

 

© 2012 High Priority Targeting, Inc.